EIR response Northern Powerhouse Rail and the £118 Billion Growth Estimate
- Date released: 31 July 2026
- Request number: 2026.006
- Release of information under: EIR
Information requested
Q1 Please confirm whether the £118 billion/Levelling-up claim is based upon an idealised, optimally-connected Northern Powerhouse (Alternative A) – or upon TfN’s actual Northern Powerhouse Rail proposals as represented in the Strategic Transport Plan (Alternative B).
Q2 If Alternative A is the case, please explain how the demonstrably suboptimal NPR proposals will be enhanced to deliver the necessary optimal “transformed connectivity”, including responses that address the following specific deficiencies (inter alia):
Q2.1 Journey times between the principal cities of the Northern Powerhouse, that comprehensively fail to meet TfN’s original specification, set in 2016.
Q2.2 Primary city pairs such as Sheffield and Bradford (Yorkshire’s second- and third-largest cities) which under the STP will continue to have no direct interconnecting rail service.
Q3 If Alternative B is the case, please define the full detail of the NPR scheme that was considered by SKW and Cambridge Econometrics (CBE) in their development of NPIER.
Q4 Please define what independent transport modelling (if any) was undertaken by SKW/CBE.
Q5 Please define what transport modelling was undertaken by Transport for the North, and how this modelling was verified/validated by SKW/CBE.
Q6 Please explain how this modelling (and its resulting claim of £118 billion additional GVA) addressed the lack of any definitive NPR schemes for central Manchester and Leeds (and by implication, Liverpool, Manchester Airport, Sheffield, Bradford, Newcastle etc), and what assumptions were made for optimised network performance at these locations.
Q7 Please provide full details of previous and current NPR transpennine routes.
Q8 Please explain how TfN’s design processes have been developed to ensure that Northern Powerhouse Rail (and other associated schemes as described in the STP) will deliver the “transformed connectivity” demanded in your Strategic Transport Plan.
Q9 Please explain how TfN have evaluated the alternative Network North scheme, with its well documented ability to deliver the required “transformed connectivity” – as advised in HSUK letter dated 20/11/24 (ref L18) – that is essential to “transforming the North’s economy”.
Q10 Please describe the processes that TfN have adopted, to identify critical alignments for new (or upgraded or restored) railway routes, and then liaise with the appropriate Planning Authorities to protect these routes from encroaching urban development.
Q11 Please review the technical comparisons set out in our letter (ref L32) to Northern Leaders, and provide an alternative narrative if you believe any of these comparisons to be wrong, unfair or inappropriate.
Your request has been dealt with under the Environmental Information Regulations 2004 (“EIR”). Regulation 2(1)(c) of the EIR provides that environmental information includes:
“measures (including administrative measures), such as policies, legislation, plans, programmes, environmental agreements, and activities affecting or likely to affect the elements and factors referred to in (a) [elements of the environment] and (b) [factors affecting or likely to affect the elements of the environment] as well as measures or activities designed to protect those elements”.
The information you have requested falls within this regulation 2(1)(c) as the information relates to policies, plans, programmes and activities which affect the element of land.
Our response
Before responding to your individual questions, we consider it necessary to provide some contextual information. Whilst TfN continues to fully support Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR), particularly in terms of the significant economic benefits it can bring to the North, the scheme specification and development is led by the Department for Transport (DfT). As such, DfT is responsible for the detailed design and development, as well as any optimisation of the network to ensure that the expected benefits are realised.
Q1 TfN does not hold recorded information within the scope of this request.
For transparency, Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review (NPIER) 2023 identifies the scale of the North's long-term economic potential in the form of an updated transformational economic scenario for the North. This demonstrates how sustained increased public investment alongside leveraged private investment in the North could result in an economy that is more productive and larger, creating £118bn in additional GVA, over and above a baseline scenario, by 2050.
The Economic Scenarios for the Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review report sets out how this transformational economic scenario was developed. The development of this economic scenario did not include any modelling of Northern Powerhouse Rail or any other specific transport schemes in the North. As set out in section 7.10 of the latter report, the economic scenario includes an assumption of an additional public investment of £3bn per annum over 25 years spent on local infrastructure improvements. However, the report authors "make no specific assumptions about the location or nature of the exact investments" and "have not sought to replicate any transport modelling work carried out by TfN and Partners" (section 7.9).
The report above references Northern Powerhouse Rail, Connecting the people, communities and businesses of the North, which we provide for your ease of reference.
Q2 TfN does not hold recorded information within the scope of this request. See response to question 1.
Q3 TfN does not hold recorded information within the scope of this request. See response to question 1.
Q4 TfN does not hold recorded information within the scope of this request. See response to question 1.
Q5 TfN does not hold recorded information within the scope of this request. See response to question 1.
For transparency, TfN did not undertake nor commission any transport modelling to inform the development of the Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review scenario.
Q6 TfN does not hold recorded information within the scope of this request. See response to question 1.
Q7 On 15 July 2026, we requested that you clarify your request for information. Once you provide us with a response, we will process your request.
Q8 TfN does not hold recorded information within the scope of this request. See contextual information above.
Q9 TfN does not hold recorded information within the scope of this request.
For transparency, see agenda item 4 from TfN’s Board meeting held on 14 December 2023 entitled “Transforming the North”, which considers the implications of the Network North policy statement.
Q10 TfN does not hold recorded information within the scope of this request. See contextual information above.
Q11 This request is not a valid request for information under EIR. The EIR provides a right of access to recorded information held by a public authority and does not require the creation of new information, explanations, opinions or analyses in response to a request.
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